The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region that Atlantic hurricanes form in and move through. Medium confidence that hurricane intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.įigure 2.23: Observed Trends in Hurricane Power Dissipation Details/Download Low confidence in relative contributions of human and natural causes in the increases. High confidence that the intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have increased substantially since the early 1980s. Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties: While the best analyses to date 4, 3suggest an increase in intensity and in the number of the most intense hurricanes over this century, there remain significant uncertainties.Īssessment of confidence based on evidence New information and remaining uncertaintiesĭetecting trends in Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricane activity is challenged by a lack of consistent historical data and limited understanding of all of the complex interactions between the atmosphere and ocean that influence hurricanes. 1 While this is still the subject of active research, this trend is projected to continue. Recent studies suggest that the most intense Atlantic hurricanes have become stronger since the early 1980s. Technical Input reports (82) on a wide range of topics were also reviewed they were received as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. The key message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the climate science peer-reviewed literature. Professional expertise and judgment led to determining “key vulnerabilities.” A consensus-based approach was used for final key message selection. The Chapter Author Team’s discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts. ![]() 10 The fourth, the CMIP5 results workshop, was held in March 2012 in Hawai‘i, and resulted in an analysis of CMIP5 results relative to climate extremes in the United States. 9 The third was held in January 2012, titled Forum on Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms along the Coasts. 8 The second was held in November 2011, titled Forum on Trends and Causes of Observed Changes in Heatwaves, Coldwaves, Floods, and Drought. 7 The first workshop was held in July 2011, titled Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge. Each workshop had a different theme related to climate extremes, had approximately 30 attendees (the CMIP5 meeting had more than 100), and the workshops resulted in a paper. Key message development also involved the findings from four special workshops that related to the latest scientific understanding of climate extremes. The authors reviewed 80 technical inputs provided by the public, as well as other published literature, and applied their professional judgment. The discussion of each key message begins with a summary of recent variations or trends, followed by projections of the corresponding changes for the future.ĭevelopment of the key messages involved discussions of the lead authors and accompanying analyses conducted via one in-person meeting plus multiple teleconferences and email exchanges from February thru September 2012. The chapter presents 12 key messages about our changing climate, together with supporting evidence for those messages. Further details on the topics covered by this chapter are provided in the Climate Science Supplement and Frequently Asked Questions Appendices. Additional geographic detail is presented in the regional chapters of this report. While the focus is on changes in the United States, the need to provide context sometimes requires a broader geographical perspective. This chapter summarizes how climate is changing, why it is changing, and what is projected for the future. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryĬanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Contributing Authors Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center ![]() CICS-NC, North Carolina State Univ., NOAA National Climatic Data Center
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |